Unlocking emerging impacts of carbon tax on integrated energy systems through supply and demand co-optimization

Integrated energy systems (IES) can help achieve greater efficiency, and then ultimately promote a climate-neutral economy by utilizing local renewable resources. Demand-side energy-saving measures reduce operational costs associated with usage. Most existing IES models, however, focus on supply-side optimization, while the demand-side potential its impacts whole-system performance are still not clear. The increasing carbon tax makes it even more important to understand interactions between supply demand sides sustainable system minimal charge. Hence, this study proposes co-optimization model simultaneously optimize of an considering impact tax. A selection tree is developed describe various envelope upgrading technologies, binary established generating set scenarios corresponding probabilities. Based these results, improved two-stage stochastic programming proposed. robustness modeling results was further validated simulation–optimization-based uncertainty analysis addressing price uncertainties. case in Shanghai indicates that proposed achieves cost-efficient solutions than supply-side-only optimization Introducing installed capacity fuel-based technologies up 24% greatly accelerate penetration renewables. also promotes adoption advanced technologies. Uncertainty reveals acceptable optimal scheme configuration deviation less 5% coefficient variation 7%. Overall, observations provide valuable insights for design emerging charge